【E-commerce 0327】iPad销售剧降，苹果仍不愿明说

刘颖

Apple's iPad announcement on Tuesday had an underlying, unmistakable message: the iPad has lost its way.

The tech giant on Tuesday announced a new iPad featuring a 9.7-inch Retina display, improved components, and a $329 price tag. The company also announced that it boosted the iPad Mini 4's storage to 128GB. In a statement, Apple put on a brave face, saying that the iPad has a "stunning" screen and will deliver "incredible performance." But it did little to mask the iPad's ever-present and concerning decline.

There was a time not long ago that Apple (aapl) would have held a special press event focused solely on new iPad models. The company would have shared staggering statistics showcasing its tablet's success, and would have happily stood on the stage holding its latest invention for the world to see.

Now, though, Apple's iPad announcement has been relegated to a press release and a quiet update to its online store. And all this for what Apple said on Tuesday is its most popular iPad version and "the world's most popular tablet."

But popularity is a relative term.

In Apple's 2014 first fiscal quarter, a three-month period ended Dec. 28, 2013, the company sold more than 26 million iPads and generated $11.5 billion in sales. Apple's iPad business was about one-third the size of its iPhone unit, but nearly twice the size of its Mac division and nearly three times the size of its Services business.

During Apple's last-reported fiscal first quarter ended Dec. 31, 2016, the company sold 13.1 million iPads and generated $5.5 billion in revenue. The iPhone division is now 10 times bigger than Apple's iPad unit, and Mac and Services business lines are now generating more revenue each quarter than its tablet business.

In just three years, Apple's iPad business has been halved—and there is no end in sight to the bloodletting.

Meanwhile, the broader tablet market appears to be in free fall. During the fourth quarter of 2016, 52.9 million tablet units shipped worldwide, a figure that was down 20.1% compared to the same period in 2015, according to research firm IDC. Apple was the tablet market's leader, but its shipments were down by 18.8%—more than any other company in the top five.

It gets worse.

In a statement in February,Ryan Reith, an analyst and program vice president for IDC's Worldwide Quarterly Mobile Device Trackers unit, said that "the tablet market continues to grow stale," and "typical tablets" that don't come with a dedicated keyboard like the iPad "are continuing to lose relevancy." An increasing number of customers, Reith continued, are seeking two-in-one hybrid devices that can be used as notebooks or tablets and come with a touchscreen.

Given Apple's iPad performance and broader market challenges, it becomes clearer why Apple didn't decide to hold a big iPad event like it would have several years ago. The company simply had no good news to share.

Of course, iPad troubles are nothing new, and Apple CEO Tim Cook has been fielding questions from concerned analysts for years. In 2015, Cook was pressed on his company's troubling iPad sales. Cook told analysts that he's "still bullish on iPad" and believes there's "a lot of runway" for the product.

Two years later, that runway seems shorter. The iPad hasn't reversed its fortunes and Apple has largely ignored it, focusing instead on its iPhone and other divisions. Even the new iPad announced on Tuesday delivers only minor internal changes; the design hasn't changed.

Some Apple supporters might say that the iPad announcement on Tuesday is just the beginning. They might point to recent rumors, suggesting Apple is planning a more notable update to its iPad Pro line that could include a new 10.5-inch iPad. Apple could showcase those devices at a press event in April, according to reports.

While that certainly could happen—the notoriously secretive Apple isn't saying anything about its future plans—why would it break apart its iPad announcements? Is Apple trying to get these minor updates out of the way to make room for something bigger down the road?

It's impossible to say. Like anything else in Apple's universe, questions abound. But if anything is certain, it's that the iPad business is in a dangerous state of decline. And all signs right now point to Apple needing to do something big to reverse its course.

The problem, though, is it might already be too late.

Apple did not respond to a Fortune request for comment.

刘颖

TRANSLATIONS

苹果公司上周二发布新iPad时传递出一个毋庸置疑的深层信息，那就是iPad已经迷失了方向。

这家科技巨擘当天推出的新iPad采用9.7英寸Retina显示屏，零部件也有提升，售价329美元。同时，苹果宣布将iPad Mini 4的存储容量增至128GB。该公司在公告中勇敢地宣称，新iPad的屏幕“令人赞叹”，而且具有“难以置信的性能”。但它几乎没有掩饰iPad一直存在而且令人担心的滑坡趋势。

不久之前，苹果还曾为新iPad单独举办过发布活动。它不仅会通过令人咋舌的数据来彰显自家平板电脑的成功，还会愉快地在台上向全世界展示自己的最新作品。

而今，苹果介绍新款iPad的方式已降级为新闻发布会和在线商店的悄然更新。对于周二发布时所说的最红iPad机型和“世界上最受欢迎的平板电脑”，苹果做的也只有这些。

此外，受欢迎只是一个相对概念。

在截至2013年12月28日的三个月里，也就是苹果2014财年的首个季度中，iPad的销量超过2600万台，销售额达115亿美元。当时，iPad的业务规模约为iPhone的三分之一，但将近两倍于Mac，而且差不多是苹果服务业务的三倍。

在苹果最新公布的第一财季，也就是截至2016年12月31日的季度业绩中， iPad销量为1310万台，实现收入55亿美元。iPhone的业务规模已变为iPad的10倍，Mac和服务业务的季度收入也都超过了iPad。

在短短三年时间里，苹果的iPad业务缩水一半，而且尚未出现止跌企稳迹象。


与此同时，整个平板电脑市场也在直线下坠。研究机构IDC的数据显示，2016年第四季度全球平板电脑交货量为5290万台，和2015年同期相比减少20.1%。苹果在平板电脑市场处于龙头位置，但iPad交货量下降了18.8%，在五大平板电脑制造商中跌幅居首。


情况正在恶化。

今年2月，IDC全球移动设备季度追踪部门分析师兼项目副总裁瑞安·里思发表声明称，“平板电脑市场继续稳定增长”，而iPad等无专用键盘的“普通平板电脑的受关注程度继续下降”。里思指出，越来越多的消费者开始把目光投向二合一型混合设备，也就是既能当笔记本电脑，又有触摸屏，可以当平板电脑使用的产品。

考虑到iPad的性能以及整个市场面临的挑战，苹果不再像几年前那样为iPad举办大型发布活动的原因就变得更为明显，那就是它根本没有可供分享的好消息。

当然，iPad陷入困境绝不是什么新鲜事。这几年忧心忡忡的分析师一直在向苹果首席执行官蒂姆·库克抛出相关问题。2015年，对于iPad销售情况欠佳的疑问，库克对分析师说他“仍看好iPad”，而且相信这款产品“有巨大的空间”。

两年后，这个空间似乎变小了。iPad没能扭转自己的命运，苹果基本上也不再关注这款产品，而将注意力集中在iPhone和其他业务上。就连周二发布的新iPad也只是在内部略作调整，设计则原封未动。

一些苹果粉丝也许会说，周二发布iPad只是个开始。他们可能以近期传闻为依据，宣称苹果正计划对iPad Pro系列产品进行更大的调整，其中可能包括推出10.5英寸的新款iPad。媒体报道称，苹果有可能在4月份的发布会上展示这些产品。

虽然确实有可能出现这样的情况——苹果的保密水平尽人皆知，它从不透露今后的计划，但苹果为什么要单独发布新iPad呢？是打算先抛出这些不起眼的更新，以便为今后更大的动作留下空间吗？

我们无法下结论。这就像苹果的其他事物一样充满了疑问。但要说有什么东西可以肯定的话，那就是iPad业务正处于危险的下行态势之中，而且目前所有迹象都表明，苹果需要采取重大行动才能扭转其行进轨迹。

但问题在于，这样做或许已经为时已晚。